The metro area of Sherman-Denison (an area just north of Dallas) led the state with a 3.6 percent growth rate.  This was followed by San Angelo, the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos area, Odessa, Tyler, the Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood area, and College Station/Bryan which all saw a percent growth rate of at least 2.0 percent.  Dallas ranked twelfth showing a 1.2 percent growth rate with the San Antonio-New Braunfels area posting only a 0.1 percent increase.  The Houston area showed no growth.

Despite the increase in jobs, Texas’ unemployment rate still rose, posting a 0.3 percent gain over last August.  The unemployment rate for the state rose from 8 percent in August 2009 to 8.3 percent in August 2010 while the country’s unemployment rate actually decreased from 9.7 to 9.6 percent for the same period of time.

Overall, employment rates are beginning to creep up, with Texas ahead of the nations’ curve as far as job production.  Despite the data, many Americans are still unemployed, facing foreclosure and are struggling to manage in a continued weak economy.  An unemployment rate over 8 percent still ushers in many desperate people without work or a true vision of employment in the near future.  It will be many years before the country, including Texas, will be able to recover from these faintly optimistic yet rather gloomy employment numbers.

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According to recent information released by the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, Texas has had three months of positive annual employment growth after 16 months of job losses.   The growth rate from July 2009 to July 2010 was 1.3 percent for the entire state, compared with a rate close to zero percent for the nation.   Nineteen Texas metro areas had positive employment growth rates with San Angelo leading the state with a percent growth rate of 3% followed by College Station at 2.9% and the Austin area with 2.5% growth.  Other metro areas such as Dallas, Corpus Christi, and El Paso saw a positive growth rate in employment also.  San Antonio and Houston had a slight decline in employment.

Texas Metropolitan Areas Ranked by Employment Growth Rate,

July 2009 to July 2010 (Rank Metro Area Percent Growth Rate)

1.            San Angelo (3.0)

2.            College Station-Bryan (2.9)

3.            Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos (2.5)

4.            McAllen-Edinburg-Mission (2.0)

5.            Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood (1.9)

6.            Dallas-Plano-Irving (1.3)

Texas  (1.3)

7.            Corpus Christi (1.0)

8.            Sherman-Denison (0.7)

8.            Lubbock (0.7)

8.            Odessa (0.7)

8.            El Paso (0.7)

Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

In addition, all Texas industries except the construction and information industries had more jobs in July 2010 compared with July 2009 numbers.

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But according to Dr. Mark Dotzour, the chief economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M, “The year-over-year decline in existing home sales will be the result of comparing months when there was no tax credit with those from a year earlier, when the tax credit was artificially increasing sales.”

In 2009 the government offered first-time home buyers an $8,000 tax credit that went into effect in January of 2009.  It was offered through November 2009 and then late in the year, it was extended to include home sales with contracts written until April 30, 2010, and closed by June 30 (extended to September 30).  Also, in November of 2009, a $6,500 tax credit was offered for qualified move-up/repeat home buyers which allowed for home sales with contracts written until April 30, 2010 and closed by September 30, 2010.

After home buyers and real estate agents fully understood the tax credit, response grew and home sales flourished in September, October and November 2009.  After the tax credit was extended to April 2010 and more people were included with the addition of the $6,500 existing repeat home buyer credit, sales for the spring of 2010 rose dramatically with March up 18 percent, April up 28 percent and May up 18 percent over the same months in 2009.

But in May 2010 the market saw a dramatic fall of pending home sales.  June and July saw a considerable drop in home sales as well.  For example, in July 2010 sales in Texas were down almost 25 percent from July of 2009.

Unless another housing tax credit is instituted, Dr. Mark Dotzour predicts that an accurate reading of the housing market conditions may not occur until June or July of 2011.

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Unemployment Line

Based on the report by Ali Anari and Mark G. Dotzour, “After 16 months of job losses, the state’s annual employment growth rate turned positive and posted an annual employment growth rate of 0.2 percent for the period from May 2009 to May 2010. The nation’s rate of job losses has decreased from 4 percent in August 2009 to 0.4 percent in May 2010.”

Texas saw positive employment growth in thirteen of its metro areas from May 2009 to May 2010.  According to the study College Station-Byran ranked first in job creation.  The Austin-Round Rock – San Marcos area became the leader in Texas for major economic recovery, showing two consecutive months of job gains.  The Dallas area, including Plano and Irving, saw a

positive growth rate in May 2010 after 19 months of job losses.  The rank of the top thirteen metro areas are below with percent growth in parenthesis:

1.College Station-Bryan (3.3)

2. San Angelo (2.7)

3. Waco (2.4)

4. Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood (2.1)

5. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission (1.6)

6. El Paso (0.9)

6. Brownsville-Harlingen (0.9)

6. Tyler (0.9)

9. Texarkana (0.5)

9. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos (0.5)

11. Laredo (0.3)

11. Lubbock (0.3)

11. Dallas-Plano-Irving (0.3)

Beyond that, five Texas industries produced more jobs in May 2010 than in May 2009.  The industries included education and health services, mining and logging, other services, leisure and hospitality, professional and business including the government sector.  The education and health services added 59,500 jobs, the government sector added 35,100 jobs, the leisure and hospitality industry saw an increase of 10,600 jobs, andprofessional and business services added 1,500 jobs.  Other services which include

repair and maintenance, personal and laundry services, religious, civic and professional organizations gained 4,800 jobs.  The mining industry grew by 4.3 percent. (The complete report can be viewed at: http://recenter.tamu.edu/pdf/1862.pdf ).

Positive employment data has helped make Texas a true shining star during this economic recovery period.

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